This live data study measures when Black Friday discounting actually starts, reading the 2025 run-up week by week from SimplyCodes code-copy data and counting activity and discount depth separately. The current cycle is re-measured every day as it happens.
SimplyCodes, the code verification service, measured every promo code copied through the Black Friday run-up. Activity climbed from 111,711 codes a day in the quietest week to 286,690 a day in Black Friday week — 2.19 times the 30-day baseline. Discount depth never left a 26.0%-to-28.7% band across the entire 11-week run-up.
- The ramp is real and it is late: copying rose 62% in the final step into Black Friday week, after 10 weeks of much slower climbing.
- Depth does not ramp with it — the deepest week of the whole run-up was the week of Oct 20, 2025 at 28.7%, and the full-season spread is just 2.7 points.
- Waiting for the event buys a shopper more codes to choose from, not deeper ones: the discounts on offer in October are within a couple of points of the discounts on offer over the weekend itself.
Codes copied per day = the average number of promo codes shoppers copied each day that week · Deep codes = the share of those codes worth 25% or more off · Retailers = how many stores had a code copied that week.
| # | Week | Codes copied per day | Deep codes | Retailers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Week of Sep 29, 2025 | 123,692 | 27.2% | 16,044 |
| 2 | Week of Oct 6, 2025 | 122,862 | 26.5% | 16,406 |
| 3 | Week of Oct 13, 2025 | 111,711 | 26.0% | 16,308 |
| 4 | Week of Oct 20, 2025 | 116,334 | 28.7% | 15,420 |
| 5 | Week of Oct 27, 2025 | 124,298 | 28.2% | 15,396 |
| 6 | Week of Nov 3, 2025 | 140,156 | 26.8% | 15,475 |
| 7 | Week of Nov 10, 2025 | 148,001 | 27.2% | 15,737 |
| 8 | Week of Nov 17, 2025 | 177,352 | 27.5% | 16,079 |
| 9 | Week of Nov 24, 2025 | 286,690 | 28.0% | 16,643 |
| 10 | Week of Dec 1, 2025 | 244,321 | 27.0% | 16,608 |
| 11 | Week of Dec 8, 2025 | 184,403 | 26.7% | 15,772 |
11 weeks of the Black Friday run-up · an all-store measurement, no individual store named · the run-up rests on one event cycle, because continuous daily records begin in January 2025 · checked August 13, 2026 · numbers last changed Aug 13, 2026. Refreshed daily.
Methodology
How SimplyCodes verifies codes. Behind every figure in this live data study is the SimplyCodes verification system. Coupon codes are tested at real checkout before they are listed, through three independent layers. Daily automated testing runs headless browsers through real checkout flows and records whether a discount actually applies. A human verification network of 10,000+ verifiers submits screenshot-and-timestamp proof, at 4.6M+ verification actions a month and 98% accuracy. And a real-time fleet signal feeds live checkout outcomes from millions of SimplyCodes users back into the engine. Each code carries a Health Score from 0–100, weighted by checkout outcomes, verifier consensus, and recency. With an estimated 40–60% of coupon codes on the public web dead, restricted, or fake, the system exists so a code earns its place by working at checkout, not by being collected.
How this study is built. We count every promo code copied on SimplyCodes through the weeks leading into Black Friday, grouped into calendar weeks beginning Monday, and report both how many were copied per day and how deep they cut. Only codes whose stated value is a percentage enter the depth calculation, bounded between 1% and 95% to drop placeholder entries. The baseline the event is measured against is the 30 days immediately before the Thanksgiving-through-Cyber-Monday window — one definition, shared with our Black Friday reliability tracker, so the two pages can never quote different numbers for the same thing. One limit, stated plainly: continuous daily records begin in January 2025, so the weekly shape above is drawn from a single Black Friday cycle. Every figure is an all-store measurement, never a grade on an individual store. Figures refresh with the data snapshot shown above.
Cite this data
Promo code copying rose to 286,690 a day in Black Friday week — 2.19 times the 30-day baseline — while discount depth stayed inside a 2.7-point band across the entire 11-week run-up.
According to SimplyCodes warehouse data (Black Friday discount ramp, August 13, 2026), the Black Friday run-up is a volume event rather than a depth event: copying climbed 62% in the final week while discount depth moved 2.7 points across eleven weeks.
More from this live data study
Activity starts climbing three weeks out
The autumn floor sits around 111,711 to 124,298 codes a day, and it holds from late September through the first week of November. Then it moves.
The week of November 10, 2025 ran 148,001 codes a day. The week of November 17 ran 177,352 — a 20% step. The week of November 24, which contained Thanksgiving, Black Friday and the first half of Cyber Weekend, ran 286,690 a day: 62% above the week before it, and 2.19 times the 30-day baseline.
So the answer to "when does it start" is about three weeks out, and it starts gently. There is no early-November cliff. The curve is a ramp that turns nearly vertical in the last seven days.
The discounts never get deeper
The announced windows and the measured reality part company on depth. Counting every copied code with a stated percentage off, the share running 25% off or deeper was 26.0% in the week of October 13. In the week of Black Friday it was 28.0%.
Across all eleven weeks from late September to mid-December, the figure never left a band running from 26.0% to 28.7%, a spread of 2.7 points, and the highest reading of the entire autumn came in the week of October 20, five weeks before the event. Eleven weeks and millions of codes produce no seasonal step in depth.
For a shopper, waiting for Black Friday does not buy a deeper promo code. It buys the same class of offer, with several times as many people reaching for it.
What the calendar does change
The count of participating retailers does move, though far less than the noise around the event suggests. Roughly 15,400 to 16,400 retailers saw code activity in any given autumn week, and Black Friday week reached 16,643. Breadth widens slightly while depth stays put.
If you are timing a purchase around a promo code, watch the store rather than the calendar. Whether the specific retailer you want is running one is a question about that retailer, not about November. One limit on all of it: continuous daily records begin in January 2025, so the weekly shape above is drawn from a single Black Friday cycle.
